Real Gross Domestic Product rose a dismal 1.6% in the first quarter of this year, compared with Q4 2023’s strong 3.4% rise, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. The report says consumer spending and housing investments continued to push up GDP. 

Hocus SCOTUS — Savvy Supreme Court observers warn that Thursday’s oral arguments over a lower court ruling rejecting ex-President Trump’s claim of post-presidential presidential immunity in United States v. Donald J. Trump do not automatically equate to the ultimate ruling. But even the savviest observers anticipate a partial loss for special counsel Jack Smith in his election obstruction case related to Trump’s alleged plot to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

SCOTUS “appears skeptical” of U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan’s ruling on the immunity issue, SCOTUSblog’s Amy Howe writes, while NPR’s Nina Totenberg said five of the nine justices appear ready to send the issue back to the lower court, assuring a trial would not happen by November 5. 

On NPR’s Morning Edition Nina Totenberg posited it’s likely “court observers didn’t properly account for the personal experience of the conservative justices,” who spent much of their early careers outside the Beltway and saw Republican presidents become “targets of harassment” by Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress. 

For those five conservative justices it comes down to the question of Trump’s official actions versus personal actions. This court majority appeared to be considering sending the issue back to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan to have her cut out the parts of Smith’s indictment that charge Trump for “official” actions. 

The sixth conservative, Justice Amy Coney Barrett, appeared more skeptical of the arguments of Trump’s attorney, John Sauer. (Michael Dreeban, an attorney from Smith’s office, represented the U.S. in the oral arguments).

•••

Right Heads Fed? — Assuming Donald J. Trump’s courtroom maneuvers work for him (as they have, generally, for decades) and he manages to win a second term (far from being a long-shot at this point) all the ex-president’s men (and women?) will try to hand him some level of control over the Federal Reserve. The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump’s allies are “quietly drafting proposals” that would suck power out of the Fed if their leader gets a second term in the White House. However, the report says, a divide is “deepening” between factions that would draft an incremental policy and those that would give the president a role in setting interest rates.

You may remember that during his term Trump was jawboning the Fed to keep rates low while the Fed’s board was considering a hike in order to jump-start ultra-low inflation levels and help boost the economy.

--TL

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Trump's Big Day -- THURSDAY 4/25/24

Trump’s Immunity Claim – The Supreme Court was to begin hearing arguments 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday on ex-President Trump’s circular claim that he could not be prosecuted for crimes committed while president, including his attempts to remain president despite Joe Biden’s election victory (per NPR’s Morning Edition). SCOTUS’ decision will determine whether special counsel Jack Smith can go forward with his January 6^th/election obstruction case, which is to be tried in federal court in the District of Columbia. 

Listen to oral arguments on NPR here.

Trump’s lawyers in the case, led by attorney John Lauro, claim the steps Trump took to block certification of Biden’s electors were part of his official duties and therefore he cannot be prosecuted, according to NPR’s Nina Totenberg. 

Meanwhile… Ex-National Enquirer publisher David Pecker’s testimony in Trump’s hush money payments case continues in Manhattan. The case before SCOTUS will have no effect on this case, State of New York v. Donald John Trump because it is not a federal case.

•••

Arizona Indicts Trump Allies – Donald J. Trump has been named an unindicted co-conspirator in a 58-page grand jury indictment charging 18 of his allies with efforts to subvert the 2020 election in the state. The only names in the indictment are of 11 Republicans who allegedly posed as Arizona’s electors, but Politico among other outlets has identified former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and attorneys Rudy Giuliani and Boris Epshteyn. Attorney Ken Chesebro is “unindicted co-conspirator number four,” according to Politico.

Other names redacted but made obvious by the indictment’s descriptions include attorneys John Eastman, Jenna Ellis and Christina Bobb, as well as Trump 2020 campaign operative Mike Roman. Michigan prosecutors on Wednesday revealed that Trump is an unindicted co-conspirator in its own election subversion investigation.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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The Senate Tuesday voted 80-19 Tuesday (per The Hill) to limit debate on the foreign aid supplemental that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) ushered through the House last weekend. "It's not too late," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY, above) said. "We don't have to give up on Ukraine. And we are not going to."

PASSOVER 2024

UPDATE: Judge Juan Merchan did not immediately rule on prosecution's request to hold the ex-president in contempt for violating the gag order in the criminal case alleging falsification of business records to cover up a hush money payment, but the judge did have a "heated" discussion with lead defense attorney Todd Blanche over the issue, according to The New York Times. District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed a complaint that Trump made 10 public statements on Truth Social and his presidential campaign website that attacked two likely witnesses, former fixer Michael Cohen, and adult film star Stormy Daniels.

"You've presented nothing," Merchan told Blanche. "You're losing all credibility with the court."

More Pecker ... Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified about the publication's relationship with Trump a decade ago, according to The Guardian: "They asked me what can I do -- and what could my magazines could do -- to help the [2016 election] campaign. ... I said what I would do is I would run or publish positive stories about Mr. Trump and I would publish negative stories about his opponents, and I said that I would also be the eyes and ears because I know that the Trump Organization had a very small staff."

But wait, there's more ... Pecker also testified that the National Enquirer made up the story connecting Sen. Ted Cruz's (R-TX) father to JFK assassin Lee Harvey Oswald, NBC News reports. Cruz, who long ago joined the gaggle of Capitol Hill MAGA acolytes, told NBC he's "not interested in revisiting ancient history."

Contemptability -- Prosecutors in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's criminal case against Donald J. Trump have asked Judge Juan Merchan to hold the ex-president in contempt for violating a gag order barring attacks on witnesses, prosecutors, jurors, court staff and their families (per The New York Times). The judge is expected to rule on the request by Tuesday. Trump, who is on trial in a 34-count indictment for falsifying business records to cover up sex scandals, has attacked upcoming prosecution witnesses Michael Cohen, his former attorney-fixer, and the adult film star known as Stormy Daniels among others, on his Truth Social "media" outlet.

The ex-prez has not attacked, so far, the prosecution's first witness, David Pecker, who a decade ago as publisher of the National Enquirer allegedly applied the tabloid's "catch and kill" method to kill negative press for Trump prior to the 2016 election.

--TL

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MONDAY 4/22/24

Speaker Needs Democrats – Finally, the House has passed $60.8 billion in new aid to Ukraine for its defense against Russia’s invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), President Biden and the American people, and told NBC News’ Meet the Press in an exclusive, via interpreter, that the aid will “strengthen Ukraine and send a powerful message it will not be the second Afghanistan.” 

The House vote on the Ukraine aid package was 311-112, all of the opposition consisting of Republicans. Johnson will need at least 112 Democrats to vote to keep him as speaker if Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) goes forth with a motion to vacate.

“America last,” MTG said after the vote. “That’s all this is every single day, America last,” CQ Roll Call reports.

As House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) warned recently in an interview with Puck News, Russian propaganda has “infected a good chunk of my party’s base.” 

Also passed in the supplemental is a $26.4 billion package for Israel, at 366-58, with 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans voting “no.” Some of that money goes to Gaza as humanitarian aid.

An $8.1 billion package for Taiwan and other Indo-Pacific countries passed 384-34, and a “sidecar” of related issues including unfreezing of $5 billion Russian assets for Ukraine and tougher sanctions on Russia, Iran and China. 

These will be bundled into one supplemental for the Senate, which is to begin procedurals on it at 1 p.m. Tuesday according to Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). For Zelenskyy, it cannot come soon enough.

Addendum: We'd be remiss to ignore this cover headline from the Sunday, April 21 edition of the New York Post, the erstwhile pro-Trump tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp: "Nyet, Moscow Marjorie." The subhead, next to a head-shot of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) photoshopped wearing one of those furry Russian winter caps, says "GOP rebels defeated as House passes $61B in Ukraine aide."

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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[Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT)]

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who is retiring from the Senate after the November elections, has weighed in on the hush money Donald J. Trump paid to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The payment is at center of criminal case alleging Trump sought to influence the 2016 presidential election. The ex-president denies he had an affair with Daniels, but Romney said this (per The Independent): "I think everyone has made their own assessment of President Trump's character. And as far as I know you don't pay someone $130,000 not to have sex with you."

•••

What’s your take on the House passing supplemental spending on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan? Should House Democrats support Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), or should he lose out to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) threat to issue a motion to vacate?

What’s your opinion of House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) warning that Russian propaganda has “infected a good chunk” of the GOP base?

Email your comments on these and other newsy issues to editors@thehustings.news and please indicate whether you lean right or left in the comments section, so we make sure to post your thoughts in the appropriate column.

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Don't hold your breath for Federal Reserve interest rate relief. Inflation rose 0.4% in March for a higher-than-expected annual Consumer Price Index of 3.5% to push prices in the opposite direction from the 2% rate the Fed wants. Shelter and gas accounted for more than half the increase. Energy was up 1.1% and food was up 0.1%.

UPDATE: The House voted 273-147 Friday to pass Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, for two years. Donald J. Trump had pushed MAGA House Republicans to stall the bill because he alleges it was used to spy on him during his 2016 presidential campaign, though FISA was enacted to collect intelligence on foreigners abroad. Nevertheless, 126 Democrats voted against the reauthorization, while 86 Republicans voted "nay," according to CQ Roll Call.

FISA Rising – The House appears ready to finally pass FISA reauthorization for two years in its fourth try expected Friday, Punchbowl News reports. Key to this is Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago Friday where he and GOP presidential candidate Donald J. Trump promise a “major announcement,” according to NPR’s Morning Edition. 

•••

Russia Keeps Hitting Harder – Desperately in need of soldiers, Ukraine has lowered its age of inscription from 27 to 25 as Russia hikes up its offensive. On Thursday night, Russia destroyed Kyiv’s Oblast Trypillia thermal power plant, cutting 100% of the capital’s energy supply, The Kyiv Independent reports. Lithuania is now providing Ukraine with generators and anti-drone systems, the report says.

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a long-term security agreement with Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics at a security conference in Riga.

•••

No Enforcement – Arizona Attorney Gen. Kris Meyers (D) says she will not enforce the state’s revived 1864 abortion ban, written when “women couldn’t vote and the civil war was still raging.” Arizona’s supreme court recently upheld the abortion law. A November ballot initiative calls on voters to “enshrine” abortion rights.

“The Republicans have no idea what is coming at them in November,” Meyers told NPR’s Morning Edition. “The people of Arizona, as they should, will make it clear that they don’t want to be subjected to an 1864 abortion ban.”

--TL

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THURSDAY 4/11/24

Biden and Kishida and Bongbong – Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. joins Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Thursday at the White House for a trilateral summit with President Biden. The three are to hash out what Semafor calls Beijing’s “alleged” expansionism in the South China Sea and will discuss better cooperation between the three countries’ coast guards. 

The Philippines under Marcos II (son of despots Ferdinand Sr. and Imelda) is pushing back on China’s quest to rule the region, reports NPR’s Morning Edition.

•••

Johnson and Trump at Mar-a-Lago – There are 41 Republicans in the House Freedom Caucus, less than one-fifth of the party’s one-vote majority in the people’s chamber. One of those Freedom Caucus members is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has sent Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) packing to Mar-a-Lago Thursday, Kevin McCarthy-style to try and get former President Trump’s blessing (literally, we suspect) to bring a $60 billion standalone Ukraine aid bill to the House floor, per Punchbowl News. 

Credit or blame MTG, who has been dangling over Johnson a threatened motion to vacate as speaker in order to let Ukraine continue to lose ground in its defense against Russia, which in turn would allow Donald J. Trump to come in and “broker a deal” that would turn land Russia already has captured in Ukraine over to Vladimir Putin. 

There’s also this matter of the Freedom Caucus’ blocking renewal Wednesday of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 702, which Trump claims without evidence was used against him in the 2016 presidential election, according to The Wall Street Journal.

•••

Bolton’s Write-In Revealed – Former national security advisor for the Trump administration John Bolton used to be a regular on Fox News. But in the years since he left the Trump White House in a huff, he could be more frequently be found on CNN. There, he has often said he wrote in a presidential candidate on his 2020 ballot, rather than vote for Donald J. Trump or Joe Biden, and will do so again in 2024, but he has never before revealed his choice for president. On CNN’s The Source Wednesday night, he finally revealed to host Kaitlan Collins his write-in for 2020 and 2024. The answer? Dick Cheney.

--TL

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WEDNESDAY 4/10/24

UPDATE ON CPI -- Kai Ryssdal on APR's Marketplace begs to differ with news outlets that call Wednesday's Consumer Price Index of 3.5% "unexpected," referring to an interview he had last week with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned of a "bumpy road" to the 2% target CPI. When will the CPI come down to 2%? "We don't know," Powell told Ryssdal. "We will lower (interest) rates when inflation comes down to 2%."

•••

Whistling Past the Elections – Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meets President Biden Wednesday evening for what Semafor calls a “pomp-filled” visit to announce stronger military cooperation and joint space exploration. While that latter would seem to have more of a future than the longstanding U.S.-Russia space deal, Wednesday’s friendly gathering falls in the shadow of our elections November 5 and Japan’s leadership contest in September. 

There’s a fundraising scandal and economic slowdown for Kishida back home in Japan. And whatever sort of military hookup Biden and Kishida might cook up Wednesday would not have much of a future in an isolationist second Trump administration.

•••

Arizona’s Abortion Ban – The Arizona Supreme Court says an abortion ban from 1864 by the first territorial legislature is legal, giving Democrats an election-year bonanza in the swing state. The law imposed 46 years before Arizona became a state allows for no exceptions in the case of rape or incest, and abortion providers can be sentenced for two to five years in prison, though Planned Parenthood says it will perform abortions for the two weeks until the new-old law takes effect, NPR’s Morning Edition reports. Organizers of a November initiative to make abortion a “fundamental right” in Arizona say they already have blown past the minimum needed to get the initiative on the ballot with more than half a million signatures so far, according to the NPR report. 

Meanwhile … MAGA politician Kari Lake, who was adamantly anti-abortion in 2022 when she lost Arizona’s gubernatorial election to Democrat Katie Hobbs has moderated on the issue, like Donald J. Trump, in 2024 in her race against Ruben Gallego for independent Kyrsten Sinema’s U.S. Senate seat. The Arizona Freedom Caucus, which is as conservative as it sounds, has condemned Sinema for her flip-flop, Newsweek reports.

Florida ban: Meanwhile, in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis, other key conservatives and the Republican Party of Florida are asking voters to oppose a November ballot initiative that would repeal the state's strict abortion laws, Politico reports, calling the measure "extreme." States' rights indeed.

--TL

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TUESDAY 4/9/24

Have You Seen the Movie Trading Places? – Before a fundraiser at billionaire financier John Paulson’s Palm Beach, Florida mansion that his campaign and the Republican National Committee say raised “more than $50 million” Donald J. Trump spoke before “The most successful people in the whole country” and apparently recalled an “episode” in his presidential term in which he called Haiti and some African nations as “shithole countries,” The New York Times reports. No mention of MAGA faithful in red hats and t-shirts.

“And when I said, you know, ‘Why can’t we allow people to come in from nice countries, I’m trying to be nice. Nice countries, you know, like Denmark, Switzerland? Do we have any people coming in from Denmark? How about Switzerland? How about Norway?’” Here, NYT reported “chuckles” from the crowd. 

Meanwhile, on abortion… Trump targeted one of his most loyal Senate allies, Lindsey Graham (R-SC) over the senator’s questioning of the former president’s moderated, political stance on abortion that individual states should decide on abortion access (per The Hill).

--TL

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Welcome Back, Congress

ECLIPSE MONDAY 4/8/24

Blue Moon Over the Hill – The Senate is in session Monday and the House is in session Tuesday, though Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is already on Capitol Hill to work out a deal to potentially save Ukraine after it has slipped into defense-only mode as it runs out of weapons and ammunition. The White House has been “quietly backchanneling” with Johnson, Politico reported late last week in explaining why the Biden administration has not publicly criticized the House speaker over lack of more military aid to Ukraine. The White House and Johnson have “maintained contact” during Congress’ two-week spring recess just ended, Biden administration officials told Politico.

Of course, that means Democratic House members will support Johnson and fend off Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) threat of a motion to vacate if he works with the party on the other side of the aisle. While all House Democrats voted to remove former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the speakership last year, most will likely back Johnson this year, which should be sufficient to defeat the MAGA wing of the House GOP caucus on MTG’s potential motion.

Mayorkas impeachment: Meanwhile, the House impeachment case against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for allegedly failing to keep the southern border with Mexico safe and secure advances to the Senate this week, where it will die a sure death, NPR’s Morning Edition reports.

•••

‘Some Troops’ Withdrawn from Gaza – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has withdrawn some Israeli troops from the southern Gaza, BBC reports, following last week’s phone discussion between Netanyahu and President Biden. On Sunday, The New York Times reported that some Israelis believe Netanyahu is refusing to reach a ceasefire in Gaza in order to extend his time in office. 

Squeezed by both sides: But far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Guir reacted to reports of negotiations with Hamas warning that “if Netanyahu decides to end the war without an expansive assault on Rafah, he won’t have the mandate to serve as prime minister,” according to Haaretz. Rafah is the only remaining large city in Southern Gaza that has served as a refuge for Palestinians.

New development: Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid at the State Department at 11 a.m. Monday, Haaretz reports. It will not be open to the press.

•••

Trump Punts on Abortion  -- Ex-President Trump has delivered the U.S. Supreme Court justices necessary to overturn Roe v. Wade, so it’s up for states to decide what to do on abortion, he said on his Truth Social media outlet Monday morning (according to various outlets). His statement has been long-awaited, with supporters generally interested in a national ban on abortion if he wins the November election, and Democrats having made political hay over the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling.

“You must follow your heart, or in many cases, your religion or faith” on the abortion issue, he said.

•••

Biden’s Push for Student Debt Relief – President Biden travels to Madison, Wisconsin Monday where he will promote yet another new program to cancel college student loan debt. The new program, which could launch this fall just in time for the presidential election, would cancel student debt for financial hardship cases, for those who have carried the debt for 20 years or more, and for those who built the debt on “low-value” college programs, and have not yet applied for relief under his other programs, American Public Media’s Marketplace reports.

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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The economy added 303,000 jobs in March, another somewhat disconcertingly strong number that may prompt the Federal Reserve to avoid cutting the interest rate soon. The unemployment rate ticked down very slightly to 3.8%, from 3.9% in February. Noted gains were in health care, government and construction. (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

UPDATE – Strikes on a World Central Kitchen convoy killing seven humanitarian aid workers were “carried out in serious violation” of Israeli Defense Force procedures, the Israeli government said, citing “grave mistakes stemming from a serious failure due to a mistaken identification,” The Washington Post reports. The Israeli government describes the “mistaken identification” as its military allegedly believing the WCK convoy was instead Hamas, though the WCK continues to emphasize that it coordinated the convoy’s route with Israeli military officials.

Two Israeli military officers have been sacked and two more were disciplined, according to NPR.

•••

Reversal of Fortune – U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon Thursday rejected ex-President Trump’s move to throw out Mar-a-Lagogate, his confidential records case, over his argument that he considered more than 300 classified document “personal,” The Hill reports. Jack Smith, special counsel in the case, asked Cannon to promptly reject Trump’s argument that he was allowed to keep the records as “personal property” under the Presidential Records Act. 

Cannon’s ruling removes a Trump blockade tactic to try and push the starting trial date past November 5.

But the road ahead isn’t clear for Smith’s case. Cannon did not rule out the ability of Trump’s attorney team to raise the issue during the trial and place the prosecution in a sticky double-jeopardy position. 

•••

Hankey’s Credit Rating? – It turns out that California subpar car loan billionaire Don Hankey’s Knight Specialty Insurance Company might not be qualified to advance a $175 million bond to Donald J. Trump so he can pay his civil fine in that New York real estate fraud case. Attorney General Letitia James made a court filing Thursday “seeking to clarify” whether Knight is financially capable of fulfilling his obligation to pay the $175 mil if Trump defaults, according to The New York Times, which helpfully points out that the bond is a legal document and not an actual transfer of money.

James wants to clarify whether Knight is financially capable of actually putting up $175 million in cash if Trump were to default – not that the former president would try such a thing. The court ruling finding for the state and against Trump initially gave the ex-president to Monday, March 25 to pay a $454 million fine, but a New York appellate court discounted that to $175 million until Trump’s appeals might be exhausted.

•••

Corn Unhusked – The Republican-controlled Nebraska state legislature rejected by 36-8 vote a procedural motion that would lead to changing its Electoral College system to a winner-take-all result according to Newsweek. Donald J. Trump and Republican Gov. Jim Pillen had both endorsed LB 764, which would automatically give Nebraska’s five Electoral College votes to the winner of the overall state vote. 

In 2020, four of the state’s five Electoral College votes went to Trump, while the single Electoral College vote from Nebraska’s 2^nd congressional district encompassing Omaha and Council Bluffs, went to Joe Biden. It is known as the congressional-district method of awarding Electoral College votes.

Remember, it’s not about red states v. blue states. It’s about red suburbs/exurbs v. blue cities. 

The Democratic Party of course had objected to LB 764 claiming it was Trump’s attempt to pre-fix the election, even though 48 other states treat Electoral College votes as winner-take-all. Like Nebraska, Maine also employs the congressional-district method.

•••

No No Labels – The centrist group No Labels’ plans to run a third-party presidential candidate and spoil mostly President Biden’s re-election bid is no more, NPR reports. The group formed in 2010 had attempted to recruit Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and former Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie for a run, as well as former Republican South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, after she dropped out of the GOP race, Morning Edition reports. Last year never-Trumper and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan also was teased as a potential candidate. 

--Compiled and edited by Todd Lassa

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COMMENTS: editors@thehustings.news